浙江大学管理学院

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“ 下周 活动”【活动一】数据科学与管理工程学系学术讲座NO.40：Time to Upgrade under Successive Product Generations: A Survival Model with Exponential-Decay Baseline Function
2018/05/16
时间：周三上午9:00 –11:00

地点：浙大紫金港校区行政楼1102会议室

主讲人：Zhengrui Jiang 教授, 美国Iowa State University

嘉宾简介：

Zhengrui Jiang is a full Professor in College of Business, Iowa State University. His research interests include business intelligence/analytics, diffusion of innovations, and economics of information goods. He has published in leading academic journals including Management Science, MIS Quarterly, Information Systems Research, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, INRORMS Journal on Computing. He currently serves as an associate editor for Information Syste

讲座摘要：

In the presence of successive product generations, most customers are repeat buyers, who may decide to purchase a future product generation before its release. As a result, after the new product generation enters the market, its sales often show a declining pattern, making traditional bell-shaped diffusion models unsuitable for characterizing the timing of product upgrades by customers. In this study, we propose a survival model with exponential-decay baseline function (or exponential-decay model) to predict customers’ time to upgrade to a new product generation. In addition, empirical analysis using upgrade and usage data for a major sports video game series shows that the exponential-decay model performs better than or as well as existing parametric models in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we show that, by extending the basic exponential-decay model to a time-variant model, the prediction accuracy can be further improved. In particular, we find that (i) potential customers who have adopted the previous generation are more likely to upgrade; (ii) heavy users tend to upgrade earlier; (iii) specialized customers demonstrate a lower probability to upgrade. These findings can help firms better understand customers’ upgrade behaviors and develop more personalized promotions to target customers.

【活动二】【紫金创享.大师讲堂】斯坦福商学院Robert Burgelman教授：变革时代的战略创新挑战与公司成长
2018/05/17时间：周四上午9:00至下午17:00

地点：浙大紫金港校区小剧场



>>>更多活动详情及报名，请关注今日微信第二条，也可直接点击文末左下角的“阅读原文”。

【活动三】2018全球制造与供应链管理论坛——人工智能与供应链管理创新
2018/05/18时间：周五 上午9:00至下午17:00

地点：浙大紫金港校区国际会议中心138

>>>更多活动详情及报名，请点击查看以下文章：
“人工智能与供应链管理创新”，2018全球制造与供应链管理论坛报名开启[url=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjM4NTU4MQ==&mid=2650087376&idx=2&sn=b7d6446153002e4f76d6364754b9cbd9&chksm=beebb992899c308456578ad1a1966f3cd11551925932301fcd243b31033bc9264396affbdd4d&scene=21#wechat_redirect][/url]


【活动四】创新管理论坛（115）暨IES学术沙龙系列No.24：Looking Back and Looking Forward in 2018: Strategic Context Determination as an Important Research Topic for Strategy Process and Strategy-as-Practice
2018/05/18时间：周五上午9:30-11:30

地点：浙大紫金港校区行政楼1102会议室

主讲人：罗伯特•博格曼（Robert Burgelman），斯坦福商学院资深教授、国际战略领导力与创新大师

嘉宾简介：

罗伯特A.伯格曼（Robert A Burgelman）教授是国际战略与创新管理领域大师级人物，世界顶尖的斯坦福商学院Edmund　W.Littlefield管理学教授，斯坦福高级经理人项目（the Stanford Executive Program ，SEP) 执行主任。他被选为战略管理学会（Strategic Management Society）和美国管理学会（Academy of Management）Fellow。1981年以来，伯格曼教授一直在斯坦福商学院讲授战略管理。在此之前，他曾任教于安特卫普大学（比利时）、纽约大学以及哈佛商学院。他先后从安特卫普大学获得应用经济学学士学位、哥伦比亚大学获得社会学硕士学位和组织管理博士学位。

伯格曼的研究兴趣包括战略决策在企业演化发展过程中的作用、企业内部创业、技术与创新的战略管理等。他通过长期、纵向的实地调查，研究战略对企业进化的作用。他调查了企业开始新业务（通过创业、企业内部创业及收购）、放弃别的业务（通过战略性撤离）的方式，以及怎样导致与环境的协同进化。他写了150余篇原创性企业案例。目前，动态环境下的非线性战略动力学带来的难题是他的关注重点。

【活动五】2017级浙大管院本科新生入院典礼
2018/05/20时间：周五

地点：浙大紫金港校区蒙民伟楼138

【活动六】财务与会计学系历年毕业校友返校活动
2018/05/20时间：周日下午13：00

地点：浙大紫金港校区蒙民伟楼138会议室

附：本周末活动

【活动一】以管理为业：浙大管院MBA公开课暨2019招生政策发布会
2018/05/13时间：周日上午9:00

地点：浙江大学紫金港校区临水报告厅

主讲人：张钢教授，浙大管院教授

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