“ 下周活动”【活动一】数据科学与管理工程学系学术讲座NO.40：Time to Upgrade under Successive Product Generations: A Survival Model with Exponential-Decay Baseline Function
2018/05/16 时间：周三上午9:00 –11:00
地点：浙大紫金港校区行政楼1102会议室
主讲人：Zhengrui Jiang 教授, 美国Iowa State University
嘉宾简介：
Zhengrui Jiang is a full Professor in College of Business, Iowa State University. His research interests include business intelligence/analytics, diffusion of innovations, and economics of information goods. He has published in leading academic journals including Management Science, MIS Quarterly, Information Systems Research, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, INRORMS Journal on Computing. He currently serves as an associate editor for Information Syste
讲座摘要：
In the presence of successive product generations, most customers are repeat buyers, who may decide to purchase a future product generation before its release. As a result, after the new product generation enters the market, its sales often show a declining pattern, making traditional bell-shaped diffusion models unsuitable for characterizing the timing of product upgrades by customers. In this study, we propose a survival model with exponential-decay baseline function (or exponential-decay model) to predict customers’ time to upgrade to a new product generation. In addition, empirical analysis using upgrade and usage data for a major sports video game series shows that the exponential-decay model performs better than or as well as existing parametric models in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we show that, by extending the basic exponential-decay model to a time-variant model, the prediction accuracy can be further improved. In particular, we find that (i) potential customers who have adopted the previous generation are more likely to upgrade; (ii) heavy users tend to upgrade earlier; (iii) specialized customers demonstrate a lower probability to upgrade. These findings can help firms better understand customers’ upgrade behaviors and develop more personalized promotions to target customers.
【活动四】创新管理论坛（115）暨IES学术沙龙系列No.24：Looking Back and Looking Forward in 2018: Strategic Context Determination as an Important Research Topic for Strategy Process and Strategy-as-Practice 2018/05/18时间：周五上午9:30-11:30
罗伯特A.伯格曼（Robert A Burgelman）教授是国际战略与创新管理领域大师级人物，世界顶尖的斯坦福商学院Edmund W.Littlefield管理学教授，斯坦福高级经理人项目（the Stanford Executive Program ，SEP) 执行主任。他被选为战略管理学会（Strategic Management Society）和美国管理学会（Academy of Management）Fellow。1981年以来，伯格曼教授一直在斯坦福商学院讲授战略管理。在此之前，他曾任教于安特卫普大学（比利时）、纽约大学以及哈佛商学院。他先后从安特卫普大学获得应用经济学学士学位、哥伦比亚大学获得社会学硕士学位和组织管理博士学位。